Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 14.577207 16.632948 18.835426 21.366034 24.188561 27.235014 30.767035
2025-09-21 11.304523 14.063355 17.240374 21.150816 25.814385 31.176944 37.787590
2025-09-28 9.215511 12.144261 15.681479 20.234200 25.900912 32.681529 41.364192
2025-10-05 8.270606 11.456520 15.465129 20.824123 27.738097 36.289013 47.586097
2025-10-12 7.486988 10.836099 15.203488 21.236873 29.263718 39.473011 53.320190
2025-10-19 6.641395 10.024236 14.588217 21.091124 29.994309 41.615759 57.763640
2025-10-26 5.915976 9.289691 13.988778 20.879271 30.565662 43.512851 61.901810
2025-11-02 5.371789 8.752237 13.601979 20.903787 31.418966 45.779352 66.582618
2025-11-09 4.944269 8.340188 13.348779 21.077090 32.456757 48.306894 71.685579
2025-11-16 4.505705 7.865305 12.956794 21.003264 33.109390 50.294162 76.082437
2025-11-23 4.092237 7.388209 12.517767 20.815000 33.560573 51.985171 80.093032
2025-11-30 3.796803 7.073454 12.300213 20.937708 34.460979 54.336453 85.113880
2025-12-07 3.619677 6.947253 12.380210 21.540685 36.139721 57.928848 92.138475
2025-12-14 3.295630 6.538056 11.969984 21.333216 36.547744 59.638391 96.437143
2025-12-21 2.876693 5.917614 11.156885 20.406525 35.753498 59.465622 97.860960
2025-12-28 2.762473 5.841684 11.260890 21.001968 37.418906 63.124571 105.242293
2026-01-04 2.627805 5.713914 11.262542 21.417378 38.799818 66.379103 112.096566
2026-01-11 2.419056 5.423281 10.952202 21.270693 39.232529 68.138919 116.658937
2026-01-18 2.220249 5.132509 10.618451 21.057214 39.532247 69.682565 120.913585
2026-01-25 2.071050 4.927553 10.426984 21.081930 40.231285 71.886852 126.283566
2026-02-01 1.952898 4.775638 10.323446 21.256515 41.190798 74.542703 132.457695
2026-02-08 1.814523 4.566910 10.094497 21.182142 41.701985 76.462113 137.475749
2026-02-15 1.674841 4.341199 9.814843 20.992478 41.991686 78.008994 141.913123